Cue the wind chimes as we head back in time to September 2009. Rhymes, of course, included with your free admission. The start of the NFL season was just weeks away at that point and I was gearing up for it by offering a number of predictions. Now, remember, I’m not even remotely close to being an expert prognosticator, but we all have those moments of “I have a good feeling about…”
On a personal level, I started off very strong, but then my picks began to go downhill, especially regarding the playoff teams. I can’t remember if I went with my gut on those outlooks, but if I did, I’ve since lost some faith in myself. Nevertheless, it was a fun way to gear up for the long season ahead. Now that it’s all over, here are the results:
View the complete 2009-10 NFL Preview
MVP Picks:
1) Tom Brady, New England; 2) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota; 3) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
Result: Thankfully, at least one of my three picks won the MVP award this season. Manning picked up his fourth while leading the Colts to the Super Bowl for a second time in four years. His 4,500 yards passing was second only to the Texans’ Matt Schaub (47,000) and his 33 touchdowns trailed only New Orleans’ Drew Brees (34), who he’ll be squaring off in the big game. Not to mention, Indianapolis finished the year 14-2 with a perfect record up until Week 15.
As for my other two selections, Brady guided his team to a 10-6 record, first in the AFC East, but faltered in the first round of the playoffs. His numbers (4,398 yards, 28 touchdowns) during the regular season were decent enough to win him Comeback Player of the Year honors. Peterson, meanwhile, was a big reason why the Vikings made it one win shy of the Super Bowl. His 18 touchdowns led the NFL despite running for a career-low 1,341 yards.
Rookies to Watch:
1) Percy Harvin, Minnesota; 2) Mark Sanchez, New York; 3) Aaron Curry, Seattle
Result: Peterson isn’t the only “big reason” why the Vikings were so successful this season. Harvin went from the University of Florida to becoming one of the most versatile young receivers/kick returners in a matter of months last year. Thanks to the arm of Brett Farve, Harvin scored six touchdowns off 790 yards receiving. He also scored twice via kick returns. This rookie race wasn’t even close on offense.
Sanchez, too, brought his team to the AFC Championship Game. The product of USC had his ups and downs throughout the year as the starting quarterback for the Jets, but head coach Rex Ryan never gave up on him. Sanchez needs to cut down on the interceptions (20 compared to 12 touchdowns) and he’ll be fine.
As for Curry, you didn’t hear much about him because he plays in Seattle, but he managed to rack up 61 tackles and two sacks in 14 games, 12 of them starts.
Comeback Player: Michael Vick, Philadelphia
Result: Vick really wasn’t a bad choice, but Brady, who won the actual award, should have been the logical one. The Eagles took a shot on Vick this season with a two-year deal and he did provide a spark, on occasion, in wildcat situations. Vick’s two biggest performances in ’09-’10: Two touchdowns in Atlanta during Week 13 and throwing a 38-yard ball to Jeremy Maclin for a touchdown in the Eagles’ playoff game against Dallas. Philadelphia is probably going to release Vick, who should compete for a starting job next season, possibly in St. Louis.
Coach of the Year: Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona
Result: The AP is the one who hands out most of the awards after all is said and done. Whisenhunt received just one single vote for Coach of the Year, and, no, I don’t have a selection. Instead, the honor went to the Bengals’ Marvin Lewis. The seventh-year Cincinnati head coach led his team to a 10-6 record, which was enough to capture the AFC North crown. In a tragedy-filled season for the Bengals, Lewis was able to rally his troops and is well deserved of this nod.
Defensive Player of the Year: Mario Williams, Houston
Result: Williams or Reggie Bush? Bush or Williams? The debate goes back and forth and probably will never have a definitive answer so let’s move on. When I made this selection last year, Williams was coming off a 12-sack season for a Texans club that has, at least in recent seasons, looked good, but never great, nor never bad. I thought this could be his breakout campaign. I wasn’t totally wrong because Williams picked up nine sacks in 16 games for Houston. Packers cornerback Charles Woodson, however, took home the award after 12 seasons in the league. The six-time Pro Bowl selection grabbed a career-high nine interceptions this season, returning three for touchdowns. In 2008-09, Woodson had seven interceptions, two for touchdowns. Are perhaps his best years still in front of him?
Team on the Rise: San Francisco 49ers
Result: I based this purely on my infatuation with Shaun Hill. I had complete faith that the 30-year-old quarterback could return the 49ers to the playoffs after a seven-year absence. Instead, he was benched during the Oct. 25 game against Houston in favor of former first-overall selection Alex Smith. Looking at the situation now, I believe head coach Mike Singletary made the right move, but Hill also didn’t benefit from having holdout Michael Crabtree, who came aboard in Week 7 to finish the season with two touchdowns off 625 yards receiving. Throw in Frank Gore’s 1,120 yards and Vernon Davis’ 13 touchdowns at the tight end spot and this offense isn’t looking too shabby. The Niners also had the 15th best, or worst, defense in the NFL. Let’s end on a positive note: San Francisco’s 8-8 record was their best since 2002 when they lost in the divisional round to the Buccaneers. Overall, I’ll call this a winning pick in my book.
Team on the Decline: Denver Broncos
Result: Boy was I wrong, until Week 8 — that’s when they made me look good. The Broncos were 6-0 at that point and looked well on their way to securing a playoff bid. Then, they went on a 2-8 downward spiral, including losses to the Washington Redskins and Oakland Raiders. Through all of this, they still were postseason contenders. On the field, Kyle Orton played better than expected, although not great, and Brandon Marshall was a star until the final week of the season. In reality, there were very few positives aside from Elvis Dumervil’s league-leading 17 sacks.
Team Close To Becoming Elite: Baltimore Ravens
Result: I take pride in this selection because to this day I still believe the Ravens are an up-and-coming team. Their defense, once again, finished among the best in the NFL (third overall) and that’s reason enough why they’ll always be in contention. Also this season, second-year quarterback Joe Flacco showed much improvement behind center. He increased his total touchdowns (14-to-21) and yards (2,971-to-3,613) while keeping his interceptions to just 12. This season, which ended after a divisional-round loss to the Colts, also saw the emergence of running back Ray Rice, who will be among the Top 5 picks in all fantasy drafts next season. Get Flacco some wide receivers and they’re not that far off from becoming “elite.”
Playoff Picture:
NFC: Green Bay (North), Carolina (South), New York (East), Arizona (West), Philadelphia (Wild Card), Atlanta (Wild Card)
Result: Carolina, New York and Atlanta all missed the playoffs. Instead, Dallas, New Orleans and Minnesota were in.
AFC: Pittsburgh (North), Indianapolis (South), New England (East), San Diego (West), Buffalo (Wild Card), Baltimore (Wild Card)
Result: Pittsburgh and Buffalo didn’t get into the postseason, while the Jets and Cincinnati did.
NFC Championship: Green Bay over Arizona
AFC Championship: San Diego over Pittsburgh
Super Bowl: San Diego over Green Bay
Result: I was completely wrong as Pittsburgh did not even make the playoffs. Green Bay, meanwhile, lost in the first round, while San Diego and Arizona couldn’t advance past the divisional round.
Fascinating!